Does Electoral Accountability Affect Economic Policy Choices? Evidence from Gubernatorial Term Limits*

نویسندگان

  • TIMOTHY BESLEY
  • Larry Bartels
  • Stephen Coate
  • John Lott
چکیده

This paper analyzes the behavior of U. S. governors from 1950 to 1986 to investigate a reputation-building model of political behavior. We argue that differences in the behavior of governors who face a binding term limit and those who are able to run again provides a source of variation in discount rates that can be used to test a political agency model. We find evidence that taxes, spending, and other policy instruments respond to a binding term limit if a Democrat is in office. The result is a fiscal cycle in term-limit states, which lowers state income when the term limit binds.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Estimating Dynamic Games of Electoral Competition to Evaluate Term Limits in U.S. Gubernatorial Elections∗

The objective of this paper is to estimate a dynamic game of electoral competition and to evaluate the role that term limits play in gubernatorial elections. In our model candidates from two parties compete in a sequence of statewide elections. Candidates differ in their ideological positions and competence. Both dimensions are initially unobserved, but are revealed through observed incumbents’...

متن کامل

Disentangling Accountability and Competence in Elections: Evidence from U.S. Term Limits

We exploit variation in U.S. gubernatorial term limits across states and time to empirically estimate two separate effects of elections on government performance. Holding tenure in office constant, differences in performance by reelectioneligible and term-limited incumbents identify an accountability effect: reelection-eligible governors have greater incentives to exert costly effort on behalf ...

متن کامل

Economic Voting in Gubernatorial Elections

There is a large literature on economic voting in the United States, which shows that the economy matters in presidential and congressional elections. Puzzlingly, however, the state politics literature has failed to find clear evidence for economic voting in gubernatorial elections. In this study, I use population-based datasets of state and county-level economic conditions from 1969-2016 to ex...

متن کامل

Accountability , Selection , and Experience : Theory and

Previous theoretical and empirical research on term limits has focused on the problem of accountability—that is, the possibility that term-limited politicians exert less effort than those who are eligible to run for reelection. We present a model with both accountability and selection effects, in which term limits not only cause incumbents to shirk but also interfere with voters’ ability to ree...

متن کامل

Economic Geography and Economic Voting: Evidence from the US States

If voters use information about the economy to assess the competence of incumbents, a connection between economic conditions and incumbent success should only be discernable in settings where public policy might plausibly affect the economy, and where the assignment of government responsibility is relatively straightforward. Applying this logic to United States gubernatorial elections, we test ...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2008